Skeptics Guide #1030

The Skeptic’s Guide to the Universe Skepticast #1030 April 2nd 2025 Segment #1. What’s the Word enantiodromia Segment #2. News Items News Item #1 – AI Protein Sequencing https://www.science.org/content/article/ai-revolution-comes-protein-sequencing News Item #2 – Solving the Bat Cocktail Party Problem https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2407810122 News Item #3 – The Extremely Large Telescope https://www.universetoday.com/articles/the-extremely-large-telescope-could-sense-the-hints-of-life-at-proxima-centauri-in-just-10-hours News Item #4 – CIA and the Ark of the Covenant https://www.yahoo.com/news/cia-found-ark-covenant-using-104441588.html News Item #5 – 23&Me Selling Personal Data https://theconversation.com/23andme-is-potentially-selling-more-than-just-genetic-data-the-personal-survey-info-it-collected-is-just-as-much-a-privacy-problem-253220 Segment 3. Who’s That Noisy Segment #4. Your Questions and E-mails Question #1: RFK Jr and access to vaccines Message: Hello Y'all, I believe I could write you an entire novel of my concerns in life right now and provide an unending list of questions. I figure I will attempt to keep my question to the point in the next part. after that it's just conjecturing from me. How much say does RFK have to limit or eliminate vaccine access for the US? What would/could we do to prevent it? If he can remove it, how badly would this affect the manufacturing and supply of vaccines once he is gone from office? An example I look to is the lime disease vaccine that did exist and disappeared and seems to making a come back now. I just do not understand how someone in power like RFK is so willing to be ignorant? Does he believe seatbelts shouldn't exist because they aren't 100% effective, and 50 years of data can be ignored on their effect? I could go on and on and on with the amount of anger that has been building up inside since 5 years ago. Thank you for doing a good thing, I look forward to your weekly release! Question #2: Simple Math Problem Sorry- It's a little long! A meme circulated on a Neil deGrasse Tyson FB page contained an interesting math problem: “A driver aims to average 90 mph over 2 laps, but he completed the first lap at (an average of) 60 mph. What (average) speed is needed for the second lap” I recognized the problem immediately. The question contains a trap and involves the idea of weighted averages. The intuitive answer is 120 mph. Many people guessed this. But many others got it right- 180mph, and there were numerous explanations provided- some very mathematical, some less abstruse. Then a second meme popped up where the 1st lap speed was changed to 45 mph. I was the first person to jump on this one, and didn’t initially realize that for this version there is no solution! So, I gleefully posted a picture of my work and thought “well, that was cool!” Similarly, others solved the problem in various ways and came to the same startling conclusion. The average speed needed for the second lap is infinity! But many more others insisted the intuitive, very wrong answer of 135 mph, found by (45 + X)/2 = 90 was RIGHT! You can imagine what happened. Many hours and dozens of threads later, people couldn’t accept the no answer answer. “It’s 135 mph and your narrow and dogmatic view is simply laughable!” The patient meme creator and others replied to numerous commenters with different types of arguments- some mathematical, some more logical, but to no avail. As of this writing many vociferous and determined individuals are still haunting the meme. LOGICAL FALLACY? One could dismiss as Dunning-Kruger, but I noticed something else. Many comments were of the form “It’s simple! Don’t you get it?!” and “Why are you making this so complicated?! Just take 90 times 2 and subtract 45!!!!” And I’ve seen this in other contexts as well. It seems to be a desire for simplicity (elegance?). Things that are messy and complicated must be wrong. “There’s gotta be an easier way to do it!” Thoughts? William CA Segment #5. Science or Fiction Each week our host will come up with three science news items or facts, two genuine, one fictitious. He will challenge our panel of skeptics to sniff out the fake – and you can play along. Item 1: A review of health records finds that getting the shingles vaccine is associated with a 20% reduction in the risk of developing dementia. Item 2: A new study finds that mortality rates are overall higher in the US than Europe, but these differences disappear for the highest socio-economic groups. Item 3: A systematic review finds that older adults, >35 years old, do not experience greater exercise induced muscle damage than younger adults age 18-25 from the same exercise. Segment #6. Skeptical Quote of the Week “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool” - William Shakespeare, As You Like It


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