Can We Predict An Outbreak's Future? - Modeling: Crash Course Outbreak Science #9

When outbreaks happen, we need to be able to predict the course they’ll take in the future, but of course we can’t run experiments on real people to figure that out. Thankfully we can simulate outbreaks and use models to find out how different scenarios could play out! In this episode of Crash Course Outbreak Science, we’ll look at what models are, how they help predict the course of an outbreak, and how we can use them to manage real world outbreaks. This episode of Crash Course Outbreak Science was produced by Complexly in partnership with Operation Outbreak and the Sabeti Lab at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard—with generous support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. Sources: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118308896 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6002118/ https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6 https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/understanding-predictions-what-is-r-naught/ https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/ *** Watch our videos and review your learning with the Crash Course App! Download here for Apple Devices: https://apple.co/3d4eyZo Download here for Android Devices: https://bit.ly/2SrDulJ Crash Course is on Patreon! You can support us directly by signing up at http://www.patreon.com/crashcourse Thanks to the following patrons for their generous monthly contributions that help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever: DL Singfield, Jeremy Mysliwiec, Shannon McCone, Amelia Ryczek, Ken Davidian, Brian Zachariah, Stephen Akuffo, Toni Miles, Oscar Pinto-Reyes, Erin Nicole, Steve Segreto, Michael M. Varughese, Kyle & Katherine Callahan, Laurel A Stevens, Vincent, Michael Wang, Stacey Gillespie, Jaime Willis, Krystle Young, Michael Dowling, Alexis B, Rene Duedam, Burt Humburg, Aziz Y, DAVID MORTON HUDSON, Perry Joyce, Scott Harrison, Mark & Susan Billian, Junrong Eric Zhu, Alan Bridgeman, Rachel Creager, Jennifer Smith, Matt Curls, Tim Kwist, Jonathan Zbikowski, Jennifer Killen, Sarah & Nathan Catchings, Brandon Westmoreland, team dorsey, Trevin Beattie, Divonne Holmes à Court, Eric Koslow, Jennifer Dineen, Indika Siriwardena, Khaled El Shalakany, Jason Rostoker, Shawn Arnold, Siobhán, Ken Penttinen, Nathan Taylor, William McGraw, Andrei Krishkevich, ThatAmericanClare, Rizwan Kassim, Sam Ferguson, Alex Hackman, Jirat, Katie Dean, neil matatall, TheDaemonCatJr, Wai Jack Sin, Ian Dundore, Matthew, Justin, Jessica Wode, Mark, Caleb Weeks __ Want to find Crash Course elsewhere on the internet? Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/YouTubeCrashCourse Twitter - http://www.twitter.com/TheCrashCourse Tumblr - http://thecrashcourse.tumblr.com Support Crash Course on Patreon: http://patreon.com/crashcourse CC Kids: http://www.youtube.com/crashcoursekids


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